Identity checkMismatch
✓CardLeague & Championship Cards #181/198 · Rev Holo
✓Tracker matchNest Ball - 181/198 (North America Championships) · League & Championship Cards · #181/198
✓Raw pricePulse $15.55 vs tracker $15.55 (+0%)
✓Gem rate27.8% · GemRate card search enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$36.51 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✕PSA 9 comp$18.20 · Market grade-curve estimate · this printing
!PSA 8 compNone (optional downside)
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on XY: none graded yet
XY grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 XY grades are back.
Graded economics-87%
PSA 10$36.51PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$18.20Market grade-curve estimate
PSA 8-Market grade-curve estimate
Net EV−$77.90$11.40 net sale vs $89.29 cost
EV rangeEV range: -90% / -87% / -83% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $15.55PSA 10 rate 19.3–38.2% (80% interval on 10 / 36); comps ±17.0% (comp quality 66). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 15% / 9 51% / 8 21% / ≤7 13%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 27.8% → adjusted 15.3% (XY, ×0.55 at $16 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $15.55 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.75 = $89.29Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $25.93 · PSA 9 $10.22 · PSA 8 $6.61 · ≤7 $6.61PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitXY grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw; no PSA 8 comp, so 8s valued like ≤7
PSA 10/9 premium2.0x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate27.8%
PSA 10 pop10
Total pop36
SourceGemRate card search enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 22, 2026
Scarcity46/100
LabelWeak
Confidence96/100
Supply52/100
Demand0/100
Gem rate 27.8%PSA 10 pop 10/36PSA 10/9 premium 2.0xSupply constraint 52/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$15.55
Pulse price$15.55
Delta0%
CheckedOct 13, 2026
Nest Ball - 181/198 (North America Championships)PSA comps refreshed Oct 13, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context1
Drawdown62% off peak, Basing
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-07-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.