PSA 10$499.00PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$14.00PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8-PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$51.66$41.30 net sale vs $92.96 cost
EV rangeEV range: -77% / -56% / -20% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $19.09PSA 10 rate 9.7–27.1% (80% interval on 5 / 30); comps ±16.5% (comp quality 67). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 8% / 9 46% / 8 27% / ≤7 18%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 16.7% → adjusted 8.3% (Other, ×0.50 at $19 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 20.7% adjusted (≈ 41.5% population)
CostsRaw $19.09 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.88 = $92.96Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $422.85 · PSA 9 $6.62 · PSA 8 $6.62 · ≤7 $6.62PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitOther grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw; no PSA 8 comp, so 8s valued like ≤7
PSA 10/9 premium35.6x