Identity checkMatches
✓CardSV06: Twilight Masquerade #223/167 · Holo
✓Tracker matchBuddy-Buddy Poffin · SV06: Twilight Masquerade · #223/167
✓Raw pricePulse $11.99 vs tracker $12.06 (+1%)
✓Gem rate30.6% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$38.31 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$17.54 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$9.35 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SV: none graded yet
SV grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SV grades are back.
Graded economics-87%
PSA 10$38.31PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$17.54PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$9.35PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$74.51$11.09 net sale vs $85.60 cost
EV rangeEV range: -88% / -87% / -86% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $11.99PSA 10 rate 28.3–33.0% (80% interval on 196 / 640); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 18% / 9 56% / 8 18% / ≤7 8%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 30.6% → adjusted 18.4% (SV, ×0.60 at $12 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $11.99 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.62 = $85.60Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $27.48 · PSA 9 $9.65 · PSA 8 $2.63 · ≤7 $2.63PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSV grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium2.2x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate30.6%
PSA 10 pop196
Total pop640
SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 20, 2026
Scarcity39/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply48/100
Demand0/100
Gem rate 30.6%PSA 10 pop 196/640PSA 10/9 premium 2.2xSupply constraint 48/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$12.06
Pulse price$11.99
Delta+1%
CheckedOct 13, 2026
Buddy-Buddy PoffinPSA comps refreshed Oct 13, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context1
Drawdown72% off peak, Falling
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-06-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.