Identity checkMatches
✓CardSV06: Twilight Masquerade #217/167 · Holo
✓Tracker matchCarmine - 217/167 · SV06: Twilight Masquerade · #217/167
✓Raw pricePulse $49.49 vs tracker $50.47 (+2%)
✓Gem rate48.7% · GemRate · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$116.34 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$55.00 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$57.62 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SV: none graded yet
SV grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SV grades are back.
Graded economics-53%
PSA 10$116.34PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$55.00PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$57.62PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$65.72$58.75 net sale vs $124.47 cost
EV rangeEV range: -57% / -53% / -49% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $49.49PSA 10 rate 48.0–49.4% (80% interval on 3941 / 8093); comps ±7.5% (comp quality 85). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 33% / 9 46% / 8 15% / ≤7 7%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 48.7% → adjusted 32.7% (SV, ×0.67 at $49 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $49.49 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $3.99 = $124.47Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $94.44 · PSA 9 $41.80 · PSA 8 $44.05 · ≤7 $32.83PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSV grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium2.1x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate48.7%
PSA 10 pop3,941
Total pop8,093
SourceGemRate
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 22, 2026
Scarcity26/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply26/100
Demand28/100
Gem rate 48.7%PSA 10 pop 3941/8093PSA 10/9 premium 2.1xSupply constraint 26/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$50.47
Pulse price$49.49
Delta+2%
CheckedOct 11, 2026
Carmine - 217/167PSA comps refreshed Oct 11, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context1
Drawdown58% off peak, Basing
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-06-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.