Identity checkMatches
✓CardSV06: Twilight Masquerade #211/167 · Holo
✓Tracker matchTeal Mask Ogerpon ex - 211/167 · SV06: Twilight Masquerade · #211/167
✓Raw pricePulse $20.73 vs tracker $20.73 (+0%)
✓Gem rate51.3% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$89.99 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$21.75 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
!PSA 8 compNone (optional downside)
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SV: none graded yet
SV grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SV grades are back.
Graded economics-67%
PSA 10$89.99PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$21.75PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8-PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$63.86$30.80 net sale vs $94.66 cost
EV rangeEV range: -72% / -67% / -63% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $20.73PSA 10 rate 49.6–53.0% (80% interval on 733 / 1428); comps ±12.0% (comp quality 76). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 31% / 9 47% / 8 15% / ≤7 7%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 51.3% → adjusted 30.9% (SV, ×0.60 at $21 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $20.73 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.94 = $94.66Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $71.83 · PSA 9 $13.26 · PSA 8 $10.61 · ≤7 $10.61PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSV grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw; no PSA 8 comp, so 8s valued like ≤7
PSA 10/9 premium4.1x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate51.3%
PSA 10 pop733
Total pop1,428
SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 20, 2026
Scarcity37/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply24/100
Demand20/100
Gem rate 51.3%PSA 10 pop 733/1428PSA 10/9 premium 4.1xSupply constraint 24/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$20.73
Pulse price$20.73
Delta0%
CheckedOct 13, 2026
Teal Mask Ogerpon ex - 211/167PSA comps refreshed Oct 13, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context2
Support$19.89 floor, 4 tests
Drawdown52% off peak, Basing
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-06-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.