PSA 10$107.50PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$27.44PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$23.08PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$65.92$36.26 net sale vs $102.18 cost
EV rangeEV range: -67% / -65% / -62% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $27.98PSA 10 rate 42.9–45.3% (80% interval on 1209 / 2743); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 90). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 28% / 9 49% / 8 16% / ≤7 7%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 44.1% → adjusted 27.6% (SV, ×0.63 at $28 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $27.98 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $3.21 = $102.18Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $86.86 · PSA 9 $18.15 · PSA 8 $14.41 · ≤7 $14.41PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitSV grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium3.9x