Identity checkMatches
✓CardPrize Pack Series Cards #125/197 · Holo
✓Tracker matchCharizard ex - 125/197 · Prize Pack Series Cards · #125/197
✓Raw pricePulse $19.19 vs tracker $19.19 (+0%)
✓Gem rate45.3% · GemRate · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$300.00 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$69.99 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$36.00 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SW&SH: none graded yet
SW&SH grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SW&SH grades are back.
Graded economics+6%
PSA 10$300.00PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$69.99PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$36.00PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV$5.71$98.78 net sale vs $93.07 cost
EV rangeEV range: -2% / +6% / +14% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $2.15 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $19.19PSA 10 rate 43.4–47.3% (80% interval on 497 / 1096); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 27% / 9 45% / 8 18% / ≤7 9%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 45.3% → adjusted 27.2% (SW&SH, ×0.60 at $19 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 24.5% adjusted (≈ 40.8% population)
CostsRaw $19.19 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.89 = $93.07Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $252.06 · PSA 9 $54.67 · PSA 8 $25.50 · ≤7 $9.42PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSW&SH split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 47.3% vs SW&SH typical 56.5%): PSA 9 68% → 62%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium4.3x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate45.3%
PSA 10 pop497
Total pop1,096
SourceGemRate
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 22, 2026
Scarcity46/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply30/100
Demand60/100
Gem rate 45.3%PSA 10 pop 497/1096PSA 10/9 premium 4.3xSupply constraint 30/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$19.19
Pulse price$19.19
Delta0%
CheckedOct 13, 2026
Charizard ex - 125/197PSA comps refreshed Oct 13, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context2
Support$18.68 floor, 7 tests
Drawdown65% off peak, Basing
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.