PSA 10$62.88PriceCharting crawler
PSA 9$43.00PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$11.49PriceCharting crawler
Net EV−$77.19$29.45 net sale vs $106.64 cost
EV rangeEV range: -75% / -72% / -70% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $32.29PSA 10 rate 38.4–42.1% (80% interval on 441 / 1096); comps ±7.5% (comp quality 85). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 26% / 9 51% / 8 16% / ≤7 7%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 40.2% → adjusted 25.7% (SV, ×0.64 at $32 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $32.29 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $3.36 = $106.64Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $48.57 · PSA 9 $31.50 · PSA 8 $4.46 · ≤7 $4.46PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitSV grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium1.5x