Identity checkMatches
✓CardSV04: Paradox Rift #248/182 · Holo
✓Tracker matchIron Hands ex - 248/182 · SV04: Paradox Rift · #248/182
✓Raw pricePulse $12.00 vs tracker $11.99 (-0%)
✓Gem rate32.8% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$84.44 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$38.40 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$15.83 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SV: none graded yet
SV grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SV grades are back.
Graded economics-65%
PSA 10$84.44PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$38.40PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$15.83PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$55.60$30.01 net sale vs $85.61 cost
EV rangeEV range: -67% / -65% / -62% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $12.00PSA 10 rate 31.5–34.2% (80% interval on 634 / 1932); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 20% / 9 55% / 8 18% / ≤7 8%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 32.8% → adjusted 19.7% (SV, ×0.60 at $12 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $12.00 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.62 = $85.61Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $67.06 · PSA 9 $27.55 · PSA 8 $8.19 · ≤7 $3.87PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSV grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium2.2x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate32.8%
PSA 10 pop634
Total pop1,932
SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 20, 2026
Scarcity37/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply45/100
Demand17/100
Gem rate 32.8%PSA 10 pop 634/1932PSA 10/9 premium 2.2xSupply constraint 45/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$11.99
Pulse price$12.00
Delta-0%
CheckedOct 13, 2026
Iron Hands ex - 248/182PSA comps refreshed Oct 13, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context1
Drawdown64% off peak, Falling
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.