Identity checkMismatch
✓CardSV: Scarlet & Violet 151 #202/165 · Holo
✓Tracker matchZapdos ex - 202/165 · SV: Scarlet & Violet 151 · #202/165
✕Raw pricePulse $82.77 vs tracker $111.90 (+35%)
✓Gem rate29.1% · GemRate · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$469.07 · PriceCharting crawler · this printing
✓PSA 9 comp$120.50 · PriceCharting crawler · this printing
✓PSA 8 comp$103.92 · PriceCharting crawler · this printing
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SV: none graded yet
SV grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SV grades are back.
Graded economics-3%
PSA 10$469.07PriceCharting crawler
PSA 9$120.50PriceCharting crawler
PSA 8$103.92PriceCharting crawler
Net EV−$5.13$153.83 net sale vs $158.96 cost
EV rangeEV range: -20% / -3% / +14% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $28.01 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $82.77PSA 10 rate 28.8–29.4% (80% interval on 13689 / 47030); comps ±17.5% (comp quality 65). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 21% / 9 52% / 8 19% / ≤7 9%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 29.1% → adjusted 20.7% (SV, ×0.71 at $83 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 22.4% adjusted (≈ 31.5% population)
CostsRaw $82.77 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $5.20 = $158.96Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $397.17 · PSA 9 $98.02 · PSA 8 $83.79 · ≤7 $58.53PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSV split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 29.4% vs SV typical 32.0%): PSA 9 68% → 65%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium3.9x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate29.1%
PSA 10 pop13,689
Total pop47,030
SourceGemRate
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 22, 2026
Scarcity50/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply50/100
Demand75/100
Gem rate 29.1%PSA 10 pop 13689/47030PSA 10/9 premium 3.9xSupply constraint 50/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$111.90
Pulse price$82.77
Delta+35%
CheckedJun 22, 2026
Zapdos ex - 202/165PSA comps refreshed Jun 22, 2026
Signal context2
Support$81.91 floor, 2 tests
Drawdown26% off peak, Basing
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.