Identity checkMatches
✓CardSV: Scarlet & Violet 151 #183/165 · Holo
✓Tracker matchCharizard ex - 183/165 · SV: Scarlet & Violet 151 · #183/165
✓Raw pricePulse $38.35 vs tracker $38.19 (-0%)
✓Gem rate37.2% · GemRate · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$193.06 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$48.00 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$35.06 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SV: none graded yet
SV grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SV grades are back.
Graded economics-44%
PSA 10$193.06PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$48.00PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$35.06PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$49.72$63.21 net sale vs $112.92 cost
EV rangeEV range: -47% / -44% / -41% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $38.35PSA 10 rate 36.8–37.6% (80% interval on 8918 / 24000); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 24% / 9 52% / 8 17% / ≤7 8%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 37.2% → adjusted 24.2% (SV, ×0.65 at $38 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 63.0% adjusted (≈ 96.7% population)
CostsRaw $38.35 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $3.58 = $112.92Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $160.29 · PSA 9 $35.79 · PSA 8 $24.69 · ≤7 $24.22PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSV grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium4.0x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate37.2%
PSA 10 pop8,918
Total pop24,000
SourceGemRate
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 22, 2026
Scarcity42/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply39/100
Demand45/100
Gem rate 37.2%PSA 10 pop 8918/24000PSA 10/9 premium 4.0xSupply constraint 39/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$38.19
Pulse price$38.35
Delta-0%
CheckedOct 13, 2026
Charizard ex - 183/165PSA comps refreshed Oct 13, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context1
Support$34.71 floor, 5 tests
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.