PSA 10$475.50PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$65.22PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$28.19PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV$1.01$137.87 net sale vs $136.85 cost
EV rangeEV range: -7% / +1% / +9% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $31.85 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $61.44PSA 10 rate 37.7–40.5% (80% interval on 792 / 2028); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 27% / 9 50% / 8 16% / ≤7 7%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 39.1% → adjusted 26.9% (SV, ×0.69 at $61 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 26.6% adjusted (≈ 38.6% population)
CostsRaw $61.44 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $4.42 = $136.85Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $402.69 · PSA 9 $50.57 · PSA 8 $18.79 · ≤7 $18.79PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitSV grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium7.3x