PSA 10$1,318PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$84.60PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$50.00PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV$9.36$138.92 net sale vs $129.56 cost
EV rangeEV range: -7% / +7% / +22% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $21.46 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $52.83PSA 10 rate 11.2–13.3% (80% interval on 195 / 1598); comps ±8.0% (comp quality 84). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 8% / 9 40% / 8 31% / ≤7 20%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 12.2% → adjusted 8.3% (SV, ×0.68 at $53 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 7.4% adjusted (≈ 10.9% population)
CostsRaw $52.83 + shipping $5.00 + grading $61.64 (expected; 8% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $4.09 = $129.56Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $1,125.94 · PSA 9 $67.20 · PSA 8 $37.51 · ≤7 $35.41PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 8% chance of an upcharge to Priority; about 131 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitSV split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 13.3% vs SV typical 32.0%): PSA 9 68% → 44%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium15.6x