Identity checkMatches
✓CardMiscellaneous Cards & Products #008/009 · Holo
✓Tracker matchDialga (Japanese 11th Movie Commemoration Set) · Miscellaneous Cards & Products · #008/009
!Raw pricePulse $22.32 vs tracker $28.99 (+30%)
✓Gem rate57.4% · GemRate card search enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$468.68 · PriceCharting crawler · this printing
✓PSA 9 comp$56.46 · PriceCharting crawler · this printing
✓PSA 8 comp$37.77 · PriceCharting crawler · this printing
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on Other: none graded yet
Other grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 Other grades are back.
Graded economics+44%
PSA 10$468.68PriceCharting crawler
PSA 9$56.46PriceCharting crawler
PSA 8$37.77PriceCharting crawler
Net EV$42.27$138.58 net sale vs $96.31 cost
EV rangeEV range: +15% / +44% / +74% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $18.42 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $22.32PSA 10 rate 55.7–59.1% (80% interval on 773 / 1346); comps ±17.5% (comp quality 65). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 29% / 9 35% / 8 21% / ≤7 14%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 57.4% → adjusted 29.2% (Other, ×0.51 at $22 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 17.6% adjusted (≈ 34.7% population)
CostsRaw $22.32 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $3.00 = $96.31Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $396.83 · PSA 9 $43.06 · PSA 8 $27.02 · ≤7 $11.84PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitOther grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium8.3x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate57.4%
PSA 10 pop773
Total pop1,346
SourceGemRate card search enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 22, 2026
Scarcity47/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply18/100
Demand75/100
Gem rate 57.4%PSA 10 pop 773/1346PSA 10/9 premium 8.3xSupply constraint 18/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$28.99
Pulse price$22.32
Delta+30%
CheckedJun 22, 2026
Dialga (Japanese 11th Movie Commemoration Set)PSA comps refreshed Jun 22, 2026
Signal context1
Drawdown49% off peak, Basing
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.