Identity checkMismatch
✓CardWorld Championship Decks #BW50 · Normal
✓Tracker matchTropical Beach - 2014 (Haruto Kobayashi) · World Championship Decks · #BW50
✓Raw pricePulse $27.36 vs tracker $27.36 (+0%)
✓Gem rate12.1% · GemRate card search enrichment · this printing
✕PSA 10 comp$73.21 · Market grade-curve estimate · this printing
✕PSA 9 comp$26.96 · Market grade-curve estimate · this printing
✓PSA 8 comp$66.00 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SM: none graded yet
SM grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SM grades are back.
Graded economics-70%
PSA 10$73.21Market grade-curve estimate
PSA 9$26.96Market grade-curve estimate
PSA 8$66.00PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$71.24$30.29 net sale vs $101.53 cost
EV rangeEV range: -75% / -70% / -65% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $27.36PSA 10 rate 7.6–18.6% (80% interval on 7 / 58); comps ±14.0% (comp quality 72). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 7% / 9 41% / 8 31% / ≤7 21%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 12.1% → adjusted 6.9% (SM, ×0.57 at $27 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $27.36 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $3.18 = $101.53Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $57.43 · PSA 9 $17.74 · PSA 8 $51.24 · ≤7 $15.73PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSM split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 18.6% vs SM typical 34.0%): PSA 9 60% → 44%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium2.7x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate12.1%
PSA 10 pop7
Total pop58
SourceGemRate card search enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 22, 2026
Scarcity63/100
LabelWatch
Confidence92/100
Supply77/100
Demand13/100
Gem rate 12.1%PSA 10 pop 7/58PSA 10/9 premium 2.7xSupply constraint 77/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$27.36
Pulse price$27.36
Delta0%
CheckedSep 29, 2026
Tropical Beach - 2014 (Haruto Kobayashi)PSA comps refreshed Sep 29, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context1
Support$24.95 floor, 3 tests
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.