Identity checkMismatch
✓CardWorld Championship Decks #73/112 · Normal
✓Tracker matchPidgey - 2005 (Jeremy Maron) · World Championship Decks · #73/112
✓Raw pricePulse $14.90 vs tracker $14.90 (+0%)
✓Gem rate0.0% · GemRate card search enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$201.06 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✕PSA 9 comp$16.93 · Market grade-curve estimate · this printing
!PSA 8 compNone (optional downside)
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SM: none graded yet
SM grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SM grades are back.
Graded economics-91%
PSA 10$201.06PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$16.93Market grade-curve estimate
PSA 8-Market grade-curve estimate
Net EV−$80.83$7.79 net sale vs $88.62 cost
EV rangeEV range: -93% / -91% / -56% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $14.90PSA 10 rate 0.0–29.1% (80% interval on 0 / 4); comps ±17.0% (comp quality 66). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 0% / 9 56% / 8 27% / ≤7 17%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 0.0% → adjusted 0.0% (SM, ×0.55 at $15 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 50.7% adjusted (≈ 92.2% population)
CostsRaw $14.90 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.73 = $88.62Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $167.15 · PSA 9 $9.13 · PSA 8 $6.11 · ≤7 $6.11PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSM split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 29.1% vs SM typical 34.0%): PSA 9 60% → 56%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw; no PSA 8 comp, so 8s valued like ≤7
PSA 10/9 premium11.9x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate0.0%
PSA 10 pop0
Total pop4
SourceGemRate card search enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 22, 2026
Scarcity93/100
LabelElite
Confidence63/100
Supply100/100
Demand46/100
Gem rate 0.0%PSA 10 pop 0/4PSA 10/9 premium 11.9xSupply constraint 100/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$14.90
Pulse price$14.90
Delta0%
CheckedOct 13, 2026
Pidgey - 2005 (Jeremy Maron)PSA comps refreshed Oct 13, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context1
Drawdown63% off peak, Basing
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.