Identity checkMatches
✓CardPrize Pack Series Cards #018/203 · Holo
✓Tracker matchFlareon VMAX - 018/203 · Prize Pack Series Cards · #018/203
✓Raw pricePulse $113.94 vs tracker $110.30 (-3%)
✓Gem rate3.8% · GemRate card search enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$74.00 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$118.78 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$15.50 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SW&SH: none graded yet
SW&SH grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SW&SH grades are back.
Graded economics-83%
PSA 10$74.00PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$118.78PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$15.50PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$158.52$32.75 net sale vs $191.27 cost
EV rangeEV range: -85% / -83% / -80% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $113.94PSA 10 rate 1.6–8.9% (80% interval on 2 / 52); comps ±11.0% (comp quality 78). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 3% / 9 26% / 8 41% / ≤7 30%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 3.8% → adjusted 2.8% (SW&SH, ×0.74 at $114 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $113.94 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $6.34 = $191.27Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $58.11 · PSA 9 $96.54 · PSA 8 $7.90 · ≤7 $7.90PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSW&SH split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 8.9% vs SW&SH typical 56.5%): PSA 9 68% → 27%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium0.6x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate3.8%
PSA 10 pop2
Total pop52
SourceGemRate card search enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 22, 2026
Scarcity58/100
LabelWatch
Confidence89/100
Supply92/100
Demand13/100
Gem rate 3.8%PSA 10 pop 2/52PSA 10/9 premium 0.6xSupply constraint 92/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$110.30
Pulse price$113.94
Delta-3%
CheckedSep 29, 2026
Flareon VMAX - 018/203PSA comps refreshed Sep 29, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context1
Support$101.57 floor, 4 tests
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.