PSA 10$8.75PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$24.30Market grade-curve estimate
PSA 8-Market grade-curve estimate
Net EV−$159.27$14.73 net sale vs $174.00 cost
EV rangeEV range: -94% / -92% / -89% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $97.28PSA 10 rate 4.0–15.8% (80% interval on 3 / 37); comps ±23.0% (comp quality 54). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 5% / 9 57% / 8 24% / ≤7 14%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 8.1% → adjusted 5.5% (XY, ×0.68 at $97 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenPSA 10 comp is at or below a miss value; check comps
CostsRaw $97.28 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $5.73 = $174.00Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $2.21 · PSA 9 $15.45 · PSA 8 $15.45 · ≤7 $15.45PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitXY grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw; no PSA 8 comp, so 8s valued like ≤7
PSA 10/9 premium0.4x