PSA 10$41.79Market grade-curve estimate
PSA 9$15.39Market grade-curve estimate
PSA 8-Market grade-curve estimate
Net EV−$81.50$5.99 net sale vs $87.49 cost
EV rangeEV range: -94% / -93% / -91% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $13.81PSA 10 rate 0.0–6.7% (80% interval on 0 / 23); comps ±20.5% (comp quality 59). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 0% / 9 29% / 8 41% / ≤7 31%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 0.0% → adjusted 0.0% (Other, ×0.50 at $14 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $13.81 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.69 = $87.49Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $30.47 · PSA 9 $7.81 · PSA 8 $5.27 · ≤7 $5.27PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitOther split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 6.7% vs Other typical 20.4%): PSA 9 50% → 29%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw; no PSA 8 comp, so 8s valued like ≤7
PSA 10/9 premium2.7x