Identity checkMismatch
✓CardSWSH09: Brilliant Stars #186/172 · Holo
✓Tracker matchUltra Ball (Secret) · SWSH09: Brilliant Stars · #186/172
✕Raw pricePulse $13.74 vs tracker $19.91 (+45%)
✓Gem rate39.2% · GemRate card search enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$52.33 · PokemonPriceTracker 365d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$19.73 · PokemonPriceTracker 365d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$25.00 · PokemonPriceTracker 365d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SW&SH: none graded yet
SW&SH grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SW&SH grades are back.
Graded economics-79%
PSA 10$52.33PokemonPriceTracker 365d
PSA 9$19.73PokemonPriceTracker 365d
PSA 8$25.00PokemonPriceTracker 365d
Net EV−$69.09$18.33 net sale vs $87.42 cost
EV rangeEV range: -84% / -79% / -74% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $13.74PSA 10 rate 37.2–41.3% (80% interval on 375 / 956); comps ±17.5% (comp quality 65). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 24% / 9 44% / 8 21% / ≤7 11%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 39.2% → adjusted 23.5% (SW&SH, ×0.60 at $14 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $13.74 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.69 = $87.42Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $39.51 · PSA 9 $11.54 · PSA 8 $16.06 · ≤7 $5.21PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSW&SH split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 41.3% vs SW&SH typical 56.5%): PSA 9 68% → 58%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium2.7x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate39.2%
PSA 10 pop375
Total pop956
SourceGemRate card search enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 22, 2026
Scarcity35/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply37/100
Demand2/100
Gem rate 39.2%PSA 10 pop 375/956PSA 10/9 premium 2.7xSupply constraint 37/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$19.91
Pulse price$13.74
Delta+45%
CheckedJun 22, 2026
Ultra Ball (Secret)PSA comps refreshed Jun 22, 2026PSA sales window 365 days
Signal context1
Drawdown55% off peak, Basing
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.