PSA 10$88.10PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$35.87PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$26.83PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$57.56$43.34 net sale vs $100.90 cost
EV rangeEV range: -60% / -57% / -54% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $26.75PSA 10 rate 69.0–70.6% (80% interval on 3364 / 4819); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 43% / 9 38% / 8 12% / ≤7 6%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 69.8% → adjusted 43.5% (SW&SH, ×0.62 at $27 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $26.75 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $3.16 = $100.90Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $70.21 · PSA 9 $25.39 · PSA 8 $17.63 · ≤7 $15.26PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitSW&SH grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium2.5x