Identity checkMatches
✓CardSWSH06: Chilling Reign #191/198 · Holo
✓Tracker matchFlannery (Full Art) · SWSH06: Chilling Reign · #191/198
✓Raw pricePulse $15.20 vs tracker $15.34 (+1%)
✓Gem rate36.0% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$73.41 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$20.88 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$17.12 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SW&SH: none graded yet
SW&SH grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SW&SH grades are back.
Graded economics-77%
PSA 10$73.41PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$20.88PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$17.12PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$68.16$20.77 net sale vs $88.93 cost
EV rangeEV range: -79% / -77% / -74% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $15.20PSA 10 rate 33.5–38.5% (80% interval on 213 / 592); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 22% / 9 44% / 8 22% / ≤7 12%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 36.0% → adjusted 21.6% (SW&SH, ×0.60 at $15 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $15.20 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.74 = $88.93Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $57.60 · PSA 9 $12.52 · PSA 8 $9.29 · ≤7 $6.34PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSW&SH split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 38.5% vs SW&SH typical 56.5%): PSA 9 68% → 56%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium3.5x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate36.0%
PSA 10 pop213
Total pop592
SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 20, 2026
Scarcity44/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply41/100
Demand13/100
Gem rate 36.0%PSA 10 pop 213/592PSA 10/9 premium 3.5xSupply constraint 41/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$15.34
Pulse price$15.20
Delta+1%
CheckedOct 13, 2026
Flannery (Full Art)PSA comps refreshed Oct 13, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context1
Support$14.10 floor, 5 tests
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.