Identity checkMatches
✓CardSWSH06: Chilling Reign #205/198 · Holo
✓Tracker matchShadow Rider Calyrex VMAX (Alternate Art Secret) · SWSH06: Chilling Reign · #205/198
✓Raw pricePulse $66.19 vs tracker $66.19 (+0%)
✓Gem rate74.1% · GemRate · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$113.00 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$63.33 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$49.99 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SW&SH: none graded yet
SW&SH grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SW&SH grades are back.
Graded economics-51%
PSA 10$113.00PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$63.33PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$49.99PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$72.67$69.11 net sale vs $141.78 cost
EV rangeEV range: -54% / -51% / -48% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $66.19PSA 10 rate 73.2–74.9% (80% interval on 3220 / 4348); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 51% / 9 33% / 8 11% / ≤7 5%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 74.1% → adjusted 51.5% (SW&SH, ×0.69 at $66 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $66.19 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $4.60 = $141.78Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $91.58 · PSA 9 $48.95 · PSA 8 $37.51 · ≤7 $37.51PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSW&SH grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium1.8x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate74.1%
PSA 10 pop3,220
Total pop4,348
SourceGemRate
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 22, 2026
Scarcity15/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply7/100
Demand27/100
Gem rate 74.1%PSA 10 pop 3220/4348PSA 10/9 premium 1.8xSupply constraint 7/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$66.19
Pulse price$66.19
Delta0%
CheckedOct 13, 2026
Shadow Rider Calyrex VMAX (Alternate Art Secret)PSA comps refreshed Oct 13, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context2
Support$63.25 floor, 3 tests
Drawdown39% off peak, Basing
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.