Identity checkMatches
✓CardSWSH06: Chilling Reign #201/198 · Holo
✓Tracker matchBlaziken VMAX (Alternate Art Secret) · SWSH06: Chilling Reign · #201/198
✓Raw pricePulse $382.23 vs tracker $382.23 (+0%)
✓Gem rate65.7% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$558.40 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$319.99 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$354.50 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SW&SH: none graded yet
SW&SH grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SW&SH grades are back.
Graded economics-19%
PSA 10$558.40PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$319.99PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$354.50PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$89.43$379.91 net sale vs $469.33 cost
EV rangeEV range: -25% / -19% / -13% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $207.29 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $382.23PSA 10 rate 65.1–66.3% (80% interval on 6679 / 10161); comps ±7.5% (comp quality 85). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 53% / 9 32% / 8 10% / ≤7 5%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 65.7% → adjusted 52.6% (SW&SH, ×0.80 at $382 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 97.7% adjusted (over 100% population)
CostsRaw $382.23 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $16.11 = $469.33Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $473.83 · PSA 9 $269.23 · PSA 8 $298.84 · ≤7 $269.23PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSW&SH grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium1.7x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate65.7%
PSA 10 pop6,679
Total pop10,161
SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 20, 2026
Scarcity23/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply12/100
Demand81/100
Gem rate 65.7%PSA 10 pop 6679/10161PSA 10/9 premium 1.7xSupply constraint 12/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$382.23
Pulse price$382.23
Delta0%
CheckedOct 13, 2026
Blaziken VMAX (Alternate Art Secret)PSA comps refreshed Oct 13, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context1
Support$342.67 floor, 4 tests
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.