Identity checkMatches
✓CardSWSH05: Battle Styles #168/163 · Holo
✓Tracker matchSingle Strike Urshifu VMAX (Alternate Art Secret) · SWSH05: Battle Styles · #168/163
✓Raw pricePulse $30.30 vs tracker $30.30 (+0%)
✓Gem rate63.3% · GemRate · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$74.20 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$29.01 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
!PSA 8 compNone (optional downside)
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SW&SH: none graded yet
SW&SH grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SW&SH grades are back.
Graded economics-67%
PSA 10$74.20PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$29.01PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8-PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$69.82$34.76 net sale vs $104.58 cost
EV rangeEV range: -71% / -67% / -62% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $30.30PSA 10 rate 61.9–64.8% (80% interval on 1123 / 1773); comps ±12.0% (comp quality 76). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 40% / 9 41% / 8 13% / ≤7 6%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 63.3% → adjusted 40.1% (SW&SH, ×0.63 at $30 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $30.30 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $3.29 = $104.58Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $58.28 · PSA 9 $19.50 · PSA 8 $18.00 · ≤7 $18.00PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSW&SH grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw; no PSA 8 comp, so 8s valued like ≤7
PSA 10/9 premium2.6x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate63.3%
PSA 10 pop1,123
Total pop1,773
SourceGemRate
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 22, 2026
Scarcity24/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply13/100
Demand13/100
Gem rate 63.3%PSA 10 pop 1123/1773PSA 10/9 premium 2.6xSupply constraint 13/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$30.30
Pulse price$30.30
Delta0%
CheckedOct 13, 2026
Single Strike Urshifu VMAX (Alternate Art Secret)PSA comps refreshed Oct 13, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context2
Support$30.15 floor, 5 tests
Drawdown42% off peak, Basing
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.