Identity checkMatches
✓CardSWSH02: Rebel Clash #192/192 · Holo
✓Tracker matchSonia (Full Art) · SWSH02: Rebel Clash · #192/192
✓Raw pricePulse $20.87 vs tracker $20.76 (-1%)
✓Gem rate58.5% · GemRate card search enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$55.00 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$27.89 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$20.80 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SW&SH: none graded yet
SW&SH grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SW&SH grades are back.
Graded economics-73%
PSA 10$55.00PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$27.89PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$20.80PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$69.43$25.38 net sale vs $94.81 cost
EV rangeEV range: -75% / -73% / -71% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $20.87PSA 10 rate 57.1–59.9% (80% interval on 1181 / 2019); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 35% / 9 44% / 8 14% / ≤7 6%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 58.5% → adjusted 35.3% (SW&SH, ×0.60 at $21 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $20.87 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.95 = $94.81Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $41.80 · PSA 9 $18.54 · PSA 8 $12.45 · ≤7 $10.72PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSW&SH grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium2.0x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate58.5%
PSA 10 pop1,181
Total pop2,019
SourceGemRate card search enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 22, 2026
Scarcity21/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply17/100
Demand3/100
Gem rate 58.5%PSA 10 pop 1181/2019PSA 10/9 premium 2.0xSupply constraint 17/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$20.76
Pulse price$20.87
Delta-1%
CheckedOct 13, 2026
Sonia (Full Art)PSA comps refreshed Oct 13, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context1
Support$19.23 floor, 4 tests
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.