Identity checkMatches
✓CardSWSH01: Sword & Shield Base Set #200/202 · Holo
✓Tracker matchMarnie (Full Art) · SWSH01: Sword & Shield Base Set · #200/202
✓Raw pricePulse $33.76 vs tracker $33.76 (+0%)
✓Gem rate56.5% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$125.00 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$40.64 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$44.99 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SW&SH: none graded yet
SW&SH grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SW&SH grades are back.
Graded economics-49%
PSA 10$125.00PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$40.64PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$44.99PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$52.47$55.69 net sale vs $108.17 cost
EV rangeEV range: -53% / -49% / -44% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $33.76PSA 10 rate 55.7–57.4% (80% interval on 3257 / 5762); comps ±7.5% (comp quality 85). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 36% / 9 43% / 8 14% / ≤7 6%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 56.5% → adjusted 36.3% (SW&SH, ×0.64 at $34 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $33.76 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $3.42 = $108.17Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $101.88 · PSA 9 $29.48 · PSA 8 $33.21 · ≤7 $20.68PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSW&SH grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium3.1x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate56.5%
PSA 10 pop3,257
Total pop5,762
SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 21, 2026
Scarcity29/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply19/100
Demand31/100
Gem rate 56.5%PSA 10 pop 3257/5762PSA 10/9 premium 3.1xSupply constraint 19/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$33.76
Pulse price$33.76
Delta0%
CheckedOct 13, 2026
Marnie (Full Art)PSA comps refreshed Oct 13, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context1
Support$33.27 floor, 4 tests
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.