Identity checkMatches
✓CardSM Promos #SM230 · Holo
✓Tracker matchCharizard & Braixen GX - SM230 · SM Promos · #SM230
✓Raw pricePulse $102.22 vs tracker $94.42 (-8%)
✓Gem rate43.0% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$671.12 · PriceCharting crawler · this printing
✓PSA 9 comp$110.40 · PriceCharting crawler · this printing
✓PSA 8 comp$81.64 · PriceCharting crawler · this printing
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SM: none graded yet
SM grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SM grades are back.
Graded economics+24%
PSA 10$671.12PriceCharting crawler
PSA 9$110.40PriceCharting crawler
PSA 8$81.64PriceCharting crawler
Net EV$43.72$222.85 net sale vs $179.12 cost
EV rangeEV range: +1% / +24% / +48% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $74.59 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $102.22PSA 10 rate 42.1–43.8% (80% interval on 2469 / 5744); comps ±17.5% (comp quality 65). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 29% / 9 42% / 8 18% / ≤7 11%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 43.0% → adjusted 29.2% (SM, ×0.68 at $102 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 20.3% adjusted (≈ 29.9% population)
CostsRaw $102.22 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $5.91 = $179.12Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $570.57 · PSA 9 $89.35 · PSA 8 $64.67 · ≤7 $64.67PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSM grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium6.1x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate43.0%
PSA 10 pop2,469
Total pop5,744
SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 21, 2026
Scarcity52/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply33/100
Demand87/100
Gem rate 43.0%PSA 10 pop 2469/5744PSA 10/9 premium 6.1xSupply constraint 33/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$94.42
Pulse price$102.22
Delta-8%
CheckedJun 22, 2026
Charizard & Braixen GX - SM230PSA comps refreshed Jun 22, 2026
Signal context1
Support$87.18 floor, 3 tests
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.