Identity checkMatches
✓CardSM Promos #SM201 · Holo
✓Tracker matchReshiram & Charizard GX - SM201 · SM Promos · #SM201
✓Raw pricePulse $175.78 vs tracker $183.82 (+5%)
✓Gem rate7.4% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$8,999 · PriceCharting crawler · this printing
✓PSA 9 comp$700.00 · PriceCharting crawler · this printing
✓PSA 8 comp$187.18 · PriceCharting crawler · this printing
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SM: none graded yet
SM grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SM grades are back.
Graded economics+142%
PSA 10$8,999PriceCharting crawler
PSA 9$700.00PriceCharting crawler
PSA 8$187.18PriceCharting crawler
Net EV$401.96$685.86 net sale vs $283.89 cost
EV rangeEV range: +81% / +142% / +183% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $314.11 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $175.78PSA 10 rate 6.9–7.9% (80% interval on 365 / 4923); comps ±22.0% (comp quality 56). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 5% / 9 27% / 8 38% / ≤7 29%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 7.4% → adjusted 5.4% (SM, ×0.72 at $176 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenProfitable even with no PSA 10s
CostsRaw $175.78 + shipping $5.00 + grading $88.85 (expected; 5% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $8.27 = $283.89Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $7,949.82 · PSA 9 $595.36 · PSA 8 $155.24 · ≤7 $130.37PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 5% chance of an upcharge to Premier; about 127 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSM split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 7.9% vs SM typical 34.0%): PSA 9 60% → 29%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium12.9x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate7.4%
PSA 10 pop365
Total pop4,923
SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 21, 2026
Scarcity80/100
LabelStrong
Confidence100/100
Supply86/100
Demand100/100
Gem rate 7.4%PSA 10 pop 365/4923PSA 10/9 premium 12.9xSupply constraint 86/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$183.82
Pulse price$175.78
Delta+5%
CheckedJun 22, 2026
Reshiram & Charizard GX - SM201PSA comps refreshed Jun 22, 2026
Signal context1
Support$164.63 floor, 3 tests
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.