Identity checkMatches
✓CardSM Promos #SM195 · Holo
✓Tracker matchCharizard GX - SM195 · SM Promos · #SM195
!Raw pricePulse $26.37 vs tracker $30.98 (+17%)
✓Gem rate46.9% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$268.99 · PriceCharting crawler · this printing
✓PSA 9 comp$60.00 · PriceCharting crawler · this printing
✓PSA 8 comp$25.00 · PriceCharting crawler · this printing
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SM: none graded yet
SM grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SM grades are back.
Graded economics-15%
PSA 10$268.99PriceCharting crawler
PSA 9$60.00PriceCharting crawler
PSA 8$25.00PriceCharting crawler
Net EV−$15.17$85.33 net sale vs $100.51 cost
EV rangeEV range: -31% / -15% / +1% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $26.37PSA 10 rate 46.2–47.7% (80% interval on 3453 / 7356); comps ±17.5% (comp quality 65). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 27% / 9 44% / 8 18% / ≤7 11%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 46.9% → adjusted 26.8% (SM, ×0.57 at $26 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 34.8% adjusted (≈ 60.8% population)
CostsRaw $26.37 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $3.15 = $100.51Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $225.45 · PSA 9 $46.09 · PSA 8 $16.06 · ≤7 $14.97PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSM grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium4.5x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate46.9%
PSA 10 pop3,453
Total pop7,356
SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 21, 2026
Scarcity41/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply28/100
Demand56/100
Gem rate 46.9%PSA 10 pop 3453/7356PSA 10/9 premium 4.5xSupply constraint 28/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$30.98
Pulse price$26.37
Delta+17%
CheckedJun 22, 2026
Charizard GX - SM195PSA comps refreshed Jun 22, 2026
Signal context2
Support$14.73 floor, 4 tests
Drawdown56% off peak, Basing
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.