Identity checkMatches
✓CardSM - Forbidden Light #143/131 · Holo
✓Tracker matchEnergy Recycler (Secret) · SM - Forbidden Light · #143/131
✓Raw pricePulse $35.57 vs tracker $35.57 (+0%)
✓Gem rate57.0% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$64.11 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$79.99 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
!PSA 8 compNone (optional downside)
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SM: none graded yet
SM grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SM grades are back.
Graded economics-57%
PSA 10$64.11PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$79.99PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8-PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$62.30$47.74 net sale vs $110.04 cost
EV rangeEV range: -64% / -57% / -49% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $35.57PSA 10 rate 51.2–62.7% (80% interval on 69 / 121); comps ±18.0% (comp quality 64). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 34% / 9 40% / 8 17% / ≤7 10%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 57.0% → adjusted 34.0% (SM, ×0.60 at $36 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $35.57 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $3.48 = $110.04Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $49.62 · PSA 9 $63.25 · PSA 8 $22.07 · ≤7 $22.07PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSM grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw; no PSA 8 comp, so 8s valued like ≤7
PSA 10/9 premium0.8x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate57.0%
PSA 10 pop69
Total pop121
SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 21, 2026
Scarcity19/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply18/100
Demand8/100
Gem rate 57.0%PSA 10 pop 69/121PSA 10/9 premium 0.8xSupply constraint 18/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$35.57
Pulse price$35.57
Delta0%
CheckedOct 13, 2026
Energy Recycler (Secret)PSA comps refreshed Oct 13, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context2
Support$35.19 floor, 3 tests
Drawdown40% off peak, Basing
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.