Identity checkMatches
✓CardPikachu World Collection Promos #1 · Normal
✓Tracker matchPikachu (Ivy) · Pikachu World Collection Promos · #1
✓Raw pricePulse $16.00 vs tracker $16.00 (+0%)
✓Gem rate7.9% · GemRate card search enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$103.77 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$450.00 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$76.48 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on Other: none graded yet
Other grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 Other grades are back.
Graded economics+61%
PSA 10$103.77PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$450.00PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$76.48PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV$55.17$144.93 net sale vs $89.76 cost
EV rangeEV range: +46% / +61% / +77% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $38.46 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $16.00PSA 10 rate 7.4–8.4% (80% interval on 368 / 4682); comps ±9.5% (comp quality 81). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 4% / 9 31% / 8 37% / ≤7 28%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 7.9% → adjusted 3.9% (Other, ×0.50 at $16 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenPSA 10 comp is at or below a miss value; check comps
CostsRaw $16.00 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.77 = $89.76Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $83.66 · PSA 9 $380.80 · PSA 8 $60.24 · ≤7 $6.96PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitOther split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 8.4% vs Other typical 20.4%): PSA 9 50% → 32%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium0.2x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate7.9%
PSA 10 pop368
Total pop4,682
SourceGemRate card search enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 22, 2026
Scarcity45/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply85/100
Demand24/100
Gem rate 7.9%PSA 10 pop 368/4682PSA 10/9 premium 0.2xSupply constraint 85/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$16.00
Pulse price$16.00
Delta0%
CheckedOct 13, 2026
Pikachu (Ivy)PSA comps refreshed Oct 13, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context1
Support$14.86 floor, 4 tests
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.