Identity checkMatches
✓CardSM - Ultra Prism #162/156 · Holo
✓Tracker matchMatched by TCGplayer ID
!Raw price$27.05 (tracker has no price)
✓Gem rate41.8% · GemRate card search enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$126.00 · PriceCharting crawler · this printing
✓PSA 9 comp$30.00 · PriceCharting crawler · this printing
!PSA 8 compNone (optional downside)
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SM: none graded yet
SM grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SM grades are back.
Graded economics-62%
PSA 10$121.25PokemonPriceTracker 365d
PSA 9$30.00PriceCharting crawler
PSA 8-PriceCharting crawler
Net EV−$62.60$38.62 net sale vs $101.21 cost
EV rangeEV range: -73% / -62% / -50% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $27.05PSA 10 rate 38.0–45.6% (80% interval on 114 / 273); comps ±26.0% (comp quality 48). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 24% / 9 46% / 8 19% / ≤7 11%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 41.8% → adjusted 24.0% (SM, ×0.57 at $27 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 98.2% adjusted (over 100% population)
CostsRaw $27.05 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $3.17 = $101.21Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $102.74 · PSA 9 $20.35 · PSA 8 $15.49 · ≤7 $15.49PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSM grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw; no PSA 8 comp, so 8s valued like ≤7
PSA 10/9 premium4.0x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate41.8%
PSA 10 pop114
Total pop273
SourceGemRate card search enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 22, 2026
Scarcity46/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply34/100
Demand30/100
Gem rate 41.8%PSA 10 pop 114/273PSA 10/9 premium 4.0xSupply constraint 34/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$27.45
Pulse price$27.05
Delta+1%
CheckedJun 22, 2026
Celesteela GX (Secret Rare)PSA comps refreshed Jun 22, 2026PSA sales window 365 days
Signal context2
Support$27.14 floor, 2 tests
Drawdown36% off peak, Basing
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.