PSA 10$310.98PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$59.75PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$33.37PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$62.96$30.59 net sale vs $93.55 cost
EV rangeEV range: -69% / -67% / -43% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $19.66PSA 10 rate 0.0–17.0% (80% interval on 0 / 8); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 0% / 9 46% / 8 32% / ≤7 22%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 0.0% → adjusted 0.0% (Other, ×0.50 at $20 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 27.3% adjusted (≈ 54.5% population)
CostsRaw $19.66 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.90 = $93.55Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $261.49 · PSA 9 $45.88 · PSA 8 $23.23 · ≤7 $9.79PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitOther split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 17.0% vs Other typical 20.4%): PSA 9 50% → 46%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium5.2x