PSA 10$62.33PriceCharting crawler
PSA 9$51.00PriceCharting crawler
PSA 8$14.25PriceCharting crawler
Net EV−$85.37$14.40 net sale vs $99.77 cost
EV rangeEV range: -87% / -86% / -83% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $25.66PSA 10 rate 0.0–2.8% (80% interval on 0 / 56); comps ±7.5% (comp quality 85). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 0% / 9 24% / 8 43% / ≤7 33%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 0.0% → adjusted 0.0% (SM, ×0.57 at $26 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $25.66 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $3.12 = $99.77Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $48.09 · PSA 9 $38.37 · PSA 8 $6.83 · ≤7 $6.83PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitSM split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 2.8% vs SM typical 34.0%): PSA 9 60% → 24%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium1.2x