Identity checkMatches
✓CardSM - Crimson Invasion #124/111 · Holo
✓Tracker matchWater Energy (Secret) · SM - Crimson Invasion · #124/111
✓Raw pricePulse $17.90 vs tracker $17.84 (-0%)
✓Gem rate36.9% · GemRate card search enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$57.29 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$17.36 · PriceCharting crawler · this printing
!PSA 8 compNone (optional downside)
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SM: none graded yet
SM grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SM grades are back.
Graded economics-82%
PSA 10$57.29PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$17.36PriceCharting crawler
PSA 8-PriceCharting crawler
Net EV−$75.62$16.11 net sale vs $91.73 cost
EV rangeEV range: -87% / -82% / -78% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $17.90PSA 10 rate 34.1–39.8% (80% interval on 169 / 458); comps ±17.5% (comp quality 65). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 20% / 9 48% / 8 20% / ≤7 12%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 36.9% → adjusted 20.3% (SM, ×0.55 at $18 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $17.90 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.84 = $91.73Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $43.77 · PSA 9 $9.50 · PSA 8 $8.43 · ≤7 $8.43PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSM grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw; no PSA 8 comp, so 8s valued like ≤7
PSA 10/9 premium3.3x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate36.9%
PSA 10 pop169
Total pop458
SourceGemRate card search enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 22, 2026
Scarcity42/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply40/100
Demand5/100
Gem rate 36.9%PSA 10 pop 169/458PSA 10/9 premium 3.3xSupply constraint 40/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$17.84
Pulse price$17.90
Delta-0%
CheckedSep 29, 2026
Water Energy (Secret)PSA comps refreshed Sep 29, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context1
Support$17.84 floor, 3 tests
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.