PSA 10$304.00PriceCharting crawler
PSA 9$253.64PriceCharting crawler
PSA 8$400.00PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV$116.11$209.43 net sale vs $93.32 cost
EV rangeEV range: +98% / +124% / +157% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $58.32 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $19.44PSA 10 rate 0.0–24.7% (80% interval on 0 / 5); comps ±11.5% (comp quality 77). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 0% / 9 50% / 8 30% / ≤7 20%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 0.0% → adjusted 0.0% (Other, ×0.50 at $19 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenProfitable even with no PSA 10s
CostsRaw $19.44 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.89 = $93.32Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $255.50 · PSA 9 $212.28 · PSA 8 $337.89 · ≤7 $9.62PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitOther grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium1.2x