Identity checkMatches
✓CardSM - Burning Shadows #163/147 · Holo
✓Tracker matchEscape Rope (Secret) · SM - Burning Shadows · #163/147
✓Raw pricePulse $17.10 vs tracker $17.10 (+0%)
✓Gem rate18.7% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$80.00 · PriceCharting crawler · this printing
✓PSA 9 comp$25.00 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$36.65 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SM: none graded yet
SM grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SM grades are back.
Graded economics-76%
PSA 10$80.00PriceCharting crawler
PSA 9$25.00PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$36.65PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$68.77$22.13 net sale vs $90.90 cost
EV rangeEV range: -80% / -76% / -71% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $17.10PSA 10 rate 15.8–22.0% (80% interval on 48 / 257); comps ±11.5% (comp quality 77). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 10% / 9 43% / 8 28% / ≤7 19%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 18.7% → adjusted 10.3% (SM, ×0.55 at $17 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $17.10 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.81 = $90.90Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $63.26 · PSA 9 $16.06 · PSA 8 $26.05 · ≤7 $7.81PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSM split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 22.0% vs SM typical 34.0%): PSA 9 60% → 48%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium3.2x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate18.7%
PSA 10 pop48
Total pop257
SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 21, 2026
Scarcity57/100
LabelWatch
Confidence100/100
Supply66/100
Demand16/100
Gem rate 18.7%PSA 10 pop 48/257PSA 10/9 premium 3.2xSupply constraint 66/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$17.10
Pulse price$17.10
Delta0%
CheckedOct 13, 2026
Escape Rope (Secret)PSA comps refreshed Oct 13, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context1
Drawdown75% off peak, Basing
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.