PSA 10$49.98PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$23.12Market grade-curve estimate
PSA 8-Market grade-curve estimate
Net EV−$76.84$14.47 net sale vs $91.30 cost
EV rangeEV range: -88% / -84% / -79% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $17.49PSA 10 rate 11.2–28.2% (80% interval on 6 / 33); comps ±17.0% (comp quality 66). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 10% / 9 54% / 8 23% / ≤7 14%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 18.2% → adjusted 10.0% (XY, ×0.55 at $17 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $17.49 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.82 = $91.30Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $37.49 · PSA 9 $14.44 · PSA 8 $8.11 · ≤7 $8.11PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitXY grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw; no PSA 8 comp, so 8s valued like ≤7
PSA 10/9 premium2.2x