PSA 10$716.00PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$95.00PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$70.00PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV$21.62$127.56 net sale vs $105.94 cost
EV rangeEV range: +12% / +20% / +29% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $23.88 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $31.61PSA 10 rate 22.5–24.4% (80% interval on 810 / 3453); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 13% / 9 44% / 8 26% / ≤7 17%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 23.5% → adjusted 12.6% (Other, ×0.54 at $32 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 8.7% adjusted (≈ 16.1% population)
CostsRaw $31.61 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $3.34 = $105.94Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $609.09 · PSA 9 $76.13 · PSA 8 $54.68 · ≤7 $19.02PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitOther grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium7.5x