Identity checkMatches
✓CardSM Base Set #147/149 · Holo
✓Tracker matchLillie (Full Art) · SM Base Set · #147/149
✓Raw pricePulse $42.62 vs tracker $42.62 (+0%)
✓Gem rate26.3% · GemRate · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$299.99 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$81.72 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$32.17 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SM: none graded yet
SM grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SM grades are back.
Graded economics-33%
PSA 10$299.99PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$81.72PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$32.17PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$39.23$78.12 net sale vs $117.35 cost
EV rangeEV range: -38% / -33% / -29% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $42.62PSA 10 rate 25.6–26.9% (80% interval on 2010 / 7648); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 16% / 9 45% / 8 24% / ≤7 15%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 26.3% → adjusted 16.0% (SM, ×0.61 at $43 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 35.0% adjusted (≈ 57.3% population)
CostsRaw $42.62 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $3.74 = $117.35Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $252.06 · PSA 9 $64.74 · PSA 8 $22.21 · ≤7 $22.21PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSM split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 26.9% vs SM typical 34.0%): PSA 9 60% → 53%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium3.7x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate26.3%
PSA 10 pop2,010
Total pop7,648
SourceGemRate
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 22, 2026
Scarcity51/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply54/100
Demand60/100
Gem rate 26.3%PSA 10 pop 2010/7648PSA 10/9 premium 3.7xSupply constraint 54/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$42.62
Pulse price$42.62
Delta0%
CheckedOct 13, 2026
Lillie (Full Art)PSA comps refreshed Oct 13, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context2
Support$42.15 floor, 4 tests
Drawdown38% off peak, Basing
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.