Identity checkMatches
✓CardXY - Evolutions #100/108 · Holo
✓Tracker matchM Venusaur EX (Full Art) · XY - Evolutions · #100/108
✓Raw pricePulse $35.62 vs tracker $36.02 (+1%)
✓Gem rate37.6% · GemRate · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$335.00 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$56.24 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$47.25 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on XY: none graded yet
XY grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 XY grades are back.
Graded economics-16%
PSA 10$335.00PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$56.24PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$47.25PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$17.51$92.58 net sale vs $110.09 cost
EV rangeEV range: -25% / -16% / -7% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $35.62PSA 10 rate 37.1–38.2% (80% interval on 5220 / 13873); comps ±9.5% (comp quality 81). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 22% / 9 47% / 8 19% / ≤7 12%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 37.6% → adjusted 22.4% (XY, ×0.60 at $36 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 29.6% adjusted (≈ 49.7% population)
CostsRaw $35.62 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $3.48 = $110.09Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $282.11 · PSA 9 $42.87 · PSA 8 $35.15 · ≤7 $22.11PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitXY grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium6.0x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate37.6%
PSA 10 pop5,220
Total pop13,873
SourceGemRate
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 22, 2026
Scarcity49/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply39/100
Demand63/100
Gem rate 37.6%PSA 10 pop 5220/13873PSA 10/9 premium 6.0xSupply constraint 39/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$36.02
Pulse price$35.62
Delta+1%
CheckedJun 22, 2026
M Venusaur EX (Full Art)PSA comps refreshed Jun 22, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context2
Support$32.86 floor, 4 tests
Drawdown26% off peak, Falling
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.