Identity checkMatches
✓CardXY - Evolutions #13/108 · Holo
✓Tracker matchM Charizard EX · XY - Evolutions · #13/108
!Raw pricePulse $40.42 vs tracker $51.36 (+27%)
✓Gem rate41.7% · GemRate · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$238.88 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$72.50 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$50.81 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on XY: none graded yet
XY grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 XY grades are back.
Graded economics-25%
PSA 10$238.88PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$72.50PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$50.81PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$29.09$85.98 net sale vs $115.07 cost
EV rangeEV range: -33% / -25% / -18% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $40.42PSA 10 rate 41.3–42.2% (80% interval on 9958 / 23853); comps ±9.5% (comp quality 81). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 25% / 9 45% / 8 19% / ≤7 11%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 41.7% → adjusted 25.3% (XY, ×0.61 at $40 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 44.4% adjusted (≈ 73.3% population)
CostsRaw $40.42 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $3.66 = $115.07Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $199.61 · PSA 9 $56.82 · PSA 8 $38.20 · ≤7 $25.82PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitXY grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium3.3x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate41.7%
PSA 10 pop9,958
Total pop23,853
SourceGemRate
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 22, 2026
Scarcity38/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply34/100
Demand52/100
Gem rate 41.7%PSA 10 pop 9958/23853PSA 10/9 premium 3.3xSupply constraint 34/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$51.36
Pulse price$40.42
Delta+27%
CheckedJun 22, 2026
M Charizard EXPSA comps refreshed Jun 22, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context2
Support$21.61 floor, 3 tests
Drawdown56% off peak, Basing
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.